Anthropic releases economic scenarios model for AI impact on US jobs and growth

Anthropic’s Economics team published a task-based model projecting AI effects on US GDP, unemployment, wages and labor-capital share under modest, substantial and extreme scenarios through 2030. The extreme case assumes recursive self-improvement and rapid adoption, producing up to 15% annual GDP growth but elevated knowledge-worker unemployment and a sharp rise in capital’s share of income. The release provides a structured public framework for assessing macroeconomic consequences of frontier AI progress.